How Early Voting Looks One Week Before Election Day

More than 48 million people have cast ballots since early voting began nationwide ahead of next week’s election.
According to the University of Florida Election Lab’s early voter tracker, 48,654,272 people have cast an early vote so far, with more than 25.2 million people voting in person, while 23.4 million people have returned a mail-in ballot. More than 66.4 million mail-in ballots have been requested, according to the tracker.
Early voting is available in some form in 48 states. Alabama and Mississippi are the only states without universal early voting, where constituents need an approved reason to cast an absentee ballot.
In the 2020 election, 70 percent of voters used alternatives to in-person voting, a sharp rise from 40 percent in 2016. The increase followed states’ temporary expansions of voting options to address pandemic-related concerns.
This year, enthusiasm for early voting appears to still be high. North Carolina and Georgia reported record levels of early voting this month, with 3.1 million and 3 million people, respectively, having voted early in the two states.
Amid the tight presidential race between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump, the election will ultimately come down to who turns out to vote between now and November 5, according to Jon Parker, senior lecturer in American Studies at Keele University.
“This election is very close and will come down to turnout and whose voters are the most committed on Election Day,” Parker told Newsweek.
Overall, early voting trends suggest an advantage for Democrats, who generally vote earlier and by mail more frequently than Republicans. The University of Florida’s tracker shows that more Democrats have voted early so far than GOP supporters, with more than 9.2 million registered Democrats having cast their ballot, compared to 8.5 million Republicans.
However, some early data has shown that the number of Republicans voting early this year is surging, particularly in the swing states, after Trump encouraged his supporters to vote before Election Day.
“I am telling everyone to vote early,” Trump said on a podcast this month hosted by former Fox News host Dan Bongino.
And Republicans seem to be responding. In Nevada, where Democrats typically depend on early voting to counter Republican Election Day turnout, data from the University of Florida shows that about 38,000 more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. In Arizona, where more than 1.4 million votes have already been cast, Republicans make up 42 percent of those votes, while Democrats account for 35 percent, according to tracking data. North Carolina has shown a smaller gap, with 34 percent of the early voters registered as Republicans and 33 percent as Democrats.
While Michigan, Georgia and Wisconsin do not track party registration for early voters, Pennsylvania reports that 58 percent of more than 1.4 million early ballots are from Democrats, compared to 31 percent from Republicans.
Although the Republicans are seeing a surge in early voting, it is unclear what this means for the election. The early vote data reveals only whether voters are registered with a party, not who they are voting for.
Additionally, voter registration data reveals that most early voters are female and over 65, with 41 percent of early voters nationally coming from the over-65 group, and 54 percent being female. While women are more likely than men to vote Democrat, older voters are historically more Republican than younger voters, meaning outcomes may change for either party closer to Election Day.
Of the swing states that collect demographic data, Michigan and Georgia had the highest percentage of female early voters, with 55 percent of voters from each state identifying as a female. Pennsylvania had the highest proportion of early voters over 65, with 49 percent coming from the oldest age group. North Carolina and Georgia saw more voters from 41-65 age group vote early than over 65.
But early voting data also reveals that Black voters are voting early in smaller numbers than previous years, which could suggest lower turnout among the demographic that could hurt the Democrats. For example, in Georgia, where Black voters account for one-third of eligible voters, non-Hispanic Black voters make up just 26 percent of the mail and early votes cast. That is compared to this point in 2020, when they made up 29 percent of the vote, and in 2022 when they made up 30 percent.
Polls show that Trump has a 1.5-point lead in Georgia—within the margin of error—while he has a marginal lead in Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Nevada, according to 538. The pollster also shows that Harris is ahead in Michigan, while the two candidates are tied in Wisconsin.