Justice for Grenfell?

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE: The launch of sacked Tory Chair (and world’s-briefest-Chancellor) Nadhim Zahawi’s book, “The Boy from Baghdad,” attracted a real rogues’ gallery of revelers to Hertford Street last night … as well as highly respected politicians, officials and political hacks. You can decide who’s who.
SPOTTED — As the champagne flowed … among those hobnobbing at Loulou’s private members’ club in Mayfair were former Tory MPs Boris Johnson, Chris Pincher and Kwasi Kwarteng … BBC Director General Tim Davie … Conservative peers Graham Brady, Jeffrey Archer, Jo Johnson, Richard Harrington and Michael Spencer … Commons Speaker Lindsay Hoyle …Not to mention … Former Cabinet ministers Suella Braverman, Gavin Williamson and Steve Barclay … Johnson-era No. 10 aides Eddie Lister, Jack Doyle, Dan Rosenfield, Shelley Williams-Walker and Declan Lyons … Liz Truss’ Downing Street Chief of Staff Mark Fullbrook … property tycoon and Tory donor Nick Candy … former Telegraph Editor Charles Moore … Top political hacks Harry Cole, Kate McCann, Harry Yorke and Robert Peston … and many more.
Good Wednesday morning. This is Sam Blewett.
GRENFELL INQUIRY: The usual cut and thrust of Westminster politics will pause this morning as the official inquiry into the Grenfell disaster publishes its final report. More than seven years after 72 people were killed in a catastrophic fire in a west London tower block, survivors and the loved ones of those who died should at last learn the truth about what happened. Key decisions taken by ministers of yesteryear will come under intense scrutiny, as will the actions of cladding manufacturers, the construction industry and the London fire brigade. Attention will turn quickly to how Keir Starmer — and then the creaking wheels of the criminal justice system — will act. 
All at once: The nation’s phones will start pinging with dramatic news alerts at 11 a.m., when the embargo lifts on inquiry chair Martin Moore-Bick’s second and final report. Reports by journalists who have attended lock-in briefings will be published en masse at that moment, with the full report published here. At the same time Moore-Bick, a retired judge, will give a televised statement from west London’s Dorland House (of Covid inquiry fame) — that’ll be streamed here.
**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: Tonight, over 145,000 children will go to bed in temporary accommodation. That’s why we’ve committed £200 million to support local providers who deliver housing for those who need it most. Find out more here.**
The response: The prime minister will give some initial remarks at the start of PMQs (more on that to come) at 12 p.m., ahead of his full response via a formal statement to the House of Commons at 12.30 p.m. A lengthy debate with MPs will follow. Expect more engagement from senior ministers on Grenfell in the coming days.
Never again: Starmer and Housing Secretary Angela Rayner discussed the inquiry at Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting. According to Downing Street’s readout, they said a fire in a Dagenham tower block last week was a “further reminder of how important it is to learn the lessons and ensure that the mistakes that were made never happen again.”
By the numbers: Today’s report is the culmination of more than 300 public hearings, 320,000 disclosed documents and 1,600 witness statements. It’s been five years since Phase 1 of the inquiry produced a comprehensive narrative of the events of the night of June 14, 2017 — but today’s final report is the moment everyone’s been waiting for. The inquiry has examined the short and long-term causes of the blaze, and how a recently-renovated 1970s tower block was in a condition that allowed the fire to spread so fast. 
That means … deregulation will be among the topics under scrutiny, as red tape including building regulations were shredded during David Cameron’s leadership of the country. His Housing Secretary Eric Pickles will be criticized in the report, but Cameron and his Chancellor George Osborne are likely to avoid direct criticism, according to the Telegraph’s Gordon Rayner. 
The crux of it: There will be no surprises in the report for the families, who got to read it on the condition of confidentiality on Tuesday. But what matters most for them now are the next steps. Will Starmer accept all the recommendations … and could criminal charges for offenses all the way up to manslaughter ever be brought? 
The wheels of justice: It’s already been 2,639 days since the catastrophic fire, an agonizing wait for all those affected. But the Metropolitan Police now expect to spend up to 18 months considering the contents of the report before taking further action. If prosecutions are indeed brought, a full decade could well have passed since the fire. 
The demands: Joe Powell, who is now the Labour MP for Kensington and Bayswater, where the charred but covered tower still stands, told the i’s Will Hazel the government must “make sure that they put their full weight behind getting to prosecutions as soon as possible.” 
Reaction: The families of 34 of those killed will deliver their own verdict, in a press conference at west London’s Royal Lancaster London Hotel from 1 p.m.
QUESTIONING KEIR: The first PMQs since July 24 will also be a big moment as lingering opposition leader Rishi Sunak and a host of other MPs get to hurl the questions at Starmer they’ve been saving up over the summer recess. There’s a long list of topics they may choose to challenge him on.
DISARMING ISRAEL: Anger is still simmering over the government’s decision to impose a limited suspension on arms exports to Israel over concerns they could be used in Gaza in violation of international humanitarian law. The rage goes both ways, with some saying ministers should’ve gone for a full arms embargo, while others reckon Starmer’s putting Israel’s security at threat. 
A rare rift: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s anger at what he called a “shameful” decision was unsurprising, but what’s harder to read is the impact of the rare divergence with the U.S. The White House has not criticized Britain but National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby made clear there was a difference of opinion. “There has been no determination by the United States that they have violated international humanitarian law,” he told reporters.
Anger on the frontbench: The Times splashes on the transatlantic allies being “at odds,” while the team’s piece has quotes ministers privately airing their concerns at the arms restriction. “By trying to please all sides, they’ve ended up pissing off everyone,” one said. Another suggested Britain should review arms exports for countries like Saudi Arabia “otherwise it just looks like we’re picking out the one Jewish state.”
Faint praise: Warmer words were coming from the head of the Palestinian Mission to the United Kingdom Husam Zomlot. He told BBC News last night the restrictions were a “step in the right direction” but hopes it’s a first step on the road to a full embargo.
Lest we forget … it was the Tories who kicked off this whole process — and the Guardian’s Patrick Wintour hears from a former Foreign Office adviser who claims former Foreign Secretary David Cameron sat on evidence of international humanitarian law in Gaza. Read the claim here.
CHANNEL DEATHS: Another tragedy in the English Channel — the deadliest this year — is adding fresh pressure on the PM to act. A pregnant woman and several children are among the 12 reported dead after a migrant vessel capsized off of France. Most of the dead from the overloaded vessel were female, according to French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin, who said two more remain missing. 
A call to action: The ally of President Emmanuel Macron urged the U.K. and the EU to agree a “treaty on migration” to reduce small boat crossings, according to the BBC’s report.
THE WINTER CHILL: Sunak, and maybe even some Labour MPs, may want to apply pressure on the PM over the decision to limit the winter fuel allowance only to the poorest of pensioners. Starmer bowed to pressure from backbenchers and opposition parties and will now give MPs a chance to vote on the secondary legislation next Tuesday.
Though it’ll pass easily … there could well be rebellions, including from Rachael Maskell, the York Central MP who’s been one of the loudest voices urging Chancellor Rachel Reeves to change tack. Maskell was on BBC Newsnight warning that a million pensioners could fall into poverty and go cold this winter because of the change. “I couldn’t vote for this … this is bigger than a vote, because this is about protecting people’s lives,” Maskell said. We’ll see if any Labour MPs are brave enough to actually vote against the measure, considering Starmer’s ruthless whip stripping over the two-child benefit cap.
SCOOP — CHEER UP, KEIR: Austerity axman George Osborne has been a bit of an unlikely inspiration for Starmer and Rachel Reeves and their blame game — but even the Tory former chancellor reckons they’ve been piling on the pessimism too thick. He tells my colleague Esther Webber that Labour is missing any promise of a “sunlit uplands” and “they’ve got to somehow set a more positive agenda so that people can say ‘I understand why they’re cutting the winter fuel payment, because they want to achieve these things.’” Read Esther’s piece on Starmer’s project gloom here.
LEGISLATION FOR THE LOLZ: The government is bringing back the Budget Responsibility Bill for its remaining Commons stages today. It’ll introduce a “Liz Truss lock” that ministers say would prevent another mino-budget fiasco where the OBR was snubbed. Shadow Treasury minister Gareth Davies is on the morning broadcast round to air Conservative claims it’s an attempt to “fiddle the fiscal rules,” as they lay an amendment. Not to be outdone, the Lib Dems are tabling a “Kwasi Kwarteng amendment” to add extra powers. 
MAGGIE MAGGIE MAGGIE! The Telegraph splashes on a Ruby Hinchliffe report suggesting Housing Secretary Angela Rayner is considering abolishing the Right to Buy policy (the one she used to buy her council house) for newly built homes, while also scaling back discounts for purchases. It’d make good on a manifesto pledge to protect existing stock and increase protections on newly built social housing. But Kemi Badenoch reckons Labour wants to “destroy one of Baroness Thatcher’s most transformative policies” while James Cleverly also sees it as an attack on Mrs T’s legacy. It’s almost like there’s a leadership contest going on … 
SIX TO BECOME FIVE: All the launch events, the op-eds in the right-wing newspapers and traveling around the country to hobnob with local Conservative associations lead to this first proper development in the neverending Tory contest. This afternoon we’ll have an elimination from the race for failing to win sufficient support from colleagues in the House of Commons.
Making your mind up: They made their pitches in the hustings in parliament last night, but the race is still wide open with under half of the 121 Conservative MPs having publicly declared, according to the Spectator’s handy tracker. For any wavering voters, Playbook asked for a snappy final plea from each candidate to go along with our own pen portraits.
Kemi Badenoch … the seasoned culture warrior has been leaning into her image of being able to organize a bust-up in a nunnery by pledging to “take the fight” to her opponents. The former business secretary hit out at rivals for touting “easy answers” by pledging to leave the ECHR or proposing migration caps. Badenoch says: “Let’s deal with hard truths today, rather than big problems tomorrow. Let’s renew.” 
Tom Tugendhat … has been presenting himself as a Mr. Serious after the shitshow of recent years, a saga he’s eager to apologize for. The former security minister is seen as a centrist though has made overtures about the ECHR. His pitch: “It’s time to serve the country, lead with conviction, act decisively.”
James Cleverly … is promising to resurrect the Rwanda policy, ditch stamp duty and fund a defense spending hike by slashing welfare. He’s held the high offices of foreign and home secretary but is no stranger to a severe gaffe. Cleverly says: “I’m a classic Conservative and the best communicator. I deliver what I promise, and I win elections.”
Robert Jenrick … used to be seen as such a bog-standard Tory centrist they called him “Robert Generic.” But he’s been dashing ever to the right since his days as immigration minister. He reckons the ECHR is unreformable and wants protesters shouting “Allahu Akbar” arrested. In his words: “If we are to regain the public’s trust, we must listen and change.”
Mel Stride … The real outsider in this race is the only candidate yet to actually launch his campaign. The former work and pensions secretary and Sunak ally pitches himself as a unifier who will hold Labour to account on the economy “forensically.” Stride points to his entrepreneurial and governmental background and says: “I have the skills, the experience and the drive we need to rebuild.” 
Priti Patel … was once the real darling of the Tory membership and firmly to the right of the party, but now she’s facing stiff competition. The former home secretary has been getting stuck in attacking Labour, accusing the government of “trash talking” Britain — an act she was accused of knowing a fair amount about when it comes to civil servants. Patel says: “I have the experience in government and opposition needed to hold this terrible Labour Government to account.”
UH OH: The Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith dropped this rather awkward one for Badenoch last night. She’s been attacking Labour’s cuts to the winter fuel allowance — but it turns out that back in 2022 she was herself calling for rich pensioners to be stripped of the benefit. How’s that for straight talking? 
But old remarks can haunt everyone: The Sun’s Jack Elsom and Harry Cole reported that before his right-ward conversion, back in 2017, Jenrick was arguing that the Tories need to show they are “open to the best and brightest and an approach that embraces economic liberalism.” How times change …
Money talks: Philip Harris, the bigtime Tory donor who switched his support to Labour at the last election, is writing to Conservative MPs this morning to endorse Patel, Playbook hears. In the letter, he praises her for “already holding the Labour Government to account.” 
Still wavering? Everyone’s favorite pollster John Curtice will be giving a briefing to Tory MPs in PCH’s Boothroyd room from 10.30 a.m. to give a bit of a post-mortem on the general election. 
DIVISION! The rump of Tory MPs will be casting their secret ballots in committee room 14 between 1.30 p.m. and 3.00 p.m. 
Cue the cameras: Broadcasters will be filming 1922 committee Chair Bob Blackman reading out the verdict from the same room. Lobby hacks can attend in person, but will they be squeezing in like the days of old? One campaign adviser was lamenting the lowered interest in the race after last night’s hustings, saying: “In 2019 half the lobby was there, tonight it was like four people. It’s a really striking reminder of where the Tories are now.” 
Could another one bite the dust? It’s not impossible that more than one contender is ousted today. If the combined votes of the fifth- and sixth-placed contestants still see them lagging behind the fourth, then Blackman could decide to banish them both. 
For a reminder of the good old (49) days: Anthony Seldon is launching his “Truss at 10” book tonight (invites only) — a great time to share a memory or two.
SCOOP — DEBBIE DOES WASHINGTON: One of Starmer’s top strategists, Deborah Mattinson, is set to present findings from Labour’s election-winning strategy to Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign, my colleague Esther Webber reports.
Advising America: Mattinson will travel to Washington D.C. next week to meet strategists from the Harris-Walz campaign to share insight on Starmer’s path to victory as part of a project with the D.C.-based Progressive Policy Institute think tank, run by Starmer’s former director of policy Claire Ainsley. She is expected to discuss how Starmer has tried to change the Labour Party and her focus on winning back working-class “hero voters.”
PFI WARNING: National Audit Office head Gareth Davies has warned the government that the use of private finance initiatives comes with “risks to be managed,” and wrote in the i that “being clear about how that will be achieved, and who pays, is essential,” Arj Singh reports.
COUNTDOWN: It’s the last day for backbench MPs to enter the private members’ bill ballot, with the deadline to get those names in the ballot book (located in the No lobby) at 6 p.m. today ahead of Thursday’s draw.
PLEASE DON’T STOP THE MUSIC: The EU will not ease post-Brexit regulations that make it harder for British musicians to play on the continent, in a hit to Starmer’s plans to reset relationships with the bloc, the Financial Times’ Peter Foster and Andy Bounds report. My colleague Caroline Hug has written on the challenges faced by British artists trying to play in Europe. 
EXPECTATION MANAGEMENT: Former Commons clerk Eliot Wilson writes in the Spectator that the hopes of Jeremy Corbyn’s Independent Alliance to get more time slots for parliamentary questions are likely to fall flat since such time is only officially allocated to the opposition and the third-biggest party.
SW1 EVENTS: Policy Exchange launches its “Future of the Right” project with Conservative MP Katie Lam and Reform MP Rupert Lowe at 1 p.m. (register here) … the Green Alliance hosts its summer reception with Environment Secretary Steve Reed at 6.30 p.m. (invite only). 
HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with Scotland questions, followed by PMQs … then the remaining stages of the Budget Responsibility Bill. Shadow Foreign Secretary Andrew Mitchell has the adjournment debate on the closure of Sutton Coldfield police station. 
WESTMINSTER HALL: Debates from 9.30 a.m. on topics including the space sector (Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael), the future of sheep farming (Labour’s Joe Morris), and security in the DRC (Independent MP Jeremy Corbyn). 
HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 3 p.m. with the introduction of former Labour MPs Margaret Hodge and Margaret Beckett … followed by oral questions on links between social disorder in major cities and economic and social policies, the adequacy of funding arrangements for palliative and end-of-life care and the political neutrality of civil service recruitment. Then it’s the second reading of the Holocaust Memorial Bill, followed by a motion of regret.
IN THE OTHER TORY LEADERSHIP CONTEST: Ballot papers are dropping for Scottish Conservative members to elect their new leader, with the votes closing at midday on Sept. 26. To help the members decide, the candidates — as a reminder, that’s Russell Findlay, Murdo Fraser and Meghan Gallacher — will face a hustings at 6.30 p.m. in Galashiels, the Scottish Borders.
IRISH AID PACKAGE: Taoiseach Simon Harris is in Ukraine today and will announce €43 million of additional aid to Kyiv as the Russian invasion intensifies. The Irish PM will later meet with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — after a meeting with Starmer — and will sign an agreement of support and cooperation between the two countries. 
D’EU KNOW WHAT I MEAN: The European Commission will investigate Ticketmaster’s dynamic pricing system after Oasis fans saw ticket prices inflated up to £350, the Guardian reports. The move from Brussels comes after the U.K. Competitions and Markets Authority confirmed it would be “reviewing recent developments in the ticketing market.”
UKRAINE LATEST: Fifty-one people were confirmed dead and more than 200 injured in Poltava, Ukraine as a result of one of Russia’s deadliest attacks since the start of the full-scale invasion. Two ballistic missiles struck buildings, including a hospital, and the rescue mission is ongoing. 
TRUMP WORLD: Former U.S. President Donald Trump has said he will plead not guilty to criminal charges in a revised indictment accusing him of attempting to overturn the 2020 election, according to a recent court filing. 
HAMAS BOSS CHARGED: The U.S. Department of Justice announced criminal charges Tuesday against Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and other militants in connection with the Oct. 7 attack in Israel.
**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: At Lloyds Banking Group, we’ve been championing the social housing sector for decades. Since 2018, we’ve provided more than £18.5 billion of funding to the sector and currently work with over 340 housing associations of all sizes to expand the availability of quality social housing across the UK.
We’ve announced a new £200 million financing commitment to support small housing providers across the country to increase the number of quality homes they are able to make available for those most in need. especially those experiencing homelessness or individuals with special needs. Find out more about how we are supporting the social housing sector here.**
No government round.
Shadow Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury Gareth Davies broadcast round: Times Radio (7.35 a.m.) … Sky News (8.15 a.m.) … LBC News (8.45 a.m.) … GB News (9.10 a.m.) … Talk (9.20 a.m.). 
Also on GB News PMQs (11.50 p.m.): Labour MP Natalie Fleet and Shadow Veterans Minister Andrew Bowie.
Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Labour MP Rachael Maskell (7.05 a.m.) … ISU Officer Lucy Moreton (7.50 a.m.) … Former Conservative MP Paul Scully (8.05 a.m.).
Also on Sky News Breakfast: Former Kensington MP Emma Dent Coad (7.30 a.m.) … Muslim Cultural Heritage Centre CEO Abdurahman Sayed (8.30 a.m.). 
Also on Politics Live (BBC Two 11.15 p.m.):  Shadow Leader of the House Chris Philp … Industry Minister Sarah Jones … Labour MP Polly Billington … Conservative MP Ben Obese-Jecty … Guardian columnist Gaby Hinsliff … Telegraph columnist Liam Halligan. 
Also on Nicky Campbell’s 5Live MP panel (10 a.m.): Conservative MP Kieran Mullan … Labour MP Mike Tapp … Liberal Democrat Jess Brown-Fuller. 
POLITICO UK: Cheer up, Keir! UK’s Starmer told to lighten up.
Daily Express: Dog walker, 80, ‘killed by child in park clash.’
Daily Mail: How long before the vile smuggling gangs are stopped? 
Daily Mirror: ‘Murdered’ by a kid 30 seconds from home.
Daily Star: Bada Bing.
Financial Times: Scam reimbursement payouts to be slashed after pressure from fintechs.
i: Grenfell guilty must now be prosecuted, urge MPs and survivors.
Metro: TV Kyle threw my dad under the bus. 
The Daily Telegraph: Rayner in talks to end Thatcher’s ‘right to buy.’
The Guardian: Six children among 12 dead after boat ‘ripped open’ in the Channel.
The Independent: Horror in Channel — 12 migrants die as small boat capsizes. 
The Times: Starmer and US at odds over Israel arms sales.
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: There’s a yellow warning for rain, so remember your umbrellas and maybe rethink any plans to call an election. High 20C, low 13C.SPOTTED … enjoying crisps, peanuts and white wine with the press by the reflecting pool in the Treasury courtyard, while magpies squawked in a nest overhead … Chancellor Rachel Reeves … Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones … Treasury ministers James Murray, Tulip Siddiq and Emma Reynolds … Reeves’ Chief of Staff Katie Martin, Director of Communications Ben Nunn and Political Secretary Matt Pound … Economic Adviser Spencer Thompson … Jones’ SpAd Felicity Slater … Reeves’ civil service Press Secretary Ben Parker … Head of Economic Communications Martha Bostock … fellow press officers Jakob Lundwall, Dan Henry, Daniel Lapedus, Karsten Walter and Justina Crabtree … Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee … FT columnist Martin Wolf … and about half the Lobby. 
Also spotted … in the GMB union reception in the Attlee suite … Health Secretary Wes Streeting … Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens … Development Minister Anneliese Dodds … Home Office minister Seema Malhotra … Business minister Justin Madders … and Labour MPs Sarah Owen, Afzal Khan, Dawn Butler, Olivia Blake, Marsha de Cordova, Tan Dhesi, Nadia Whittome, Charlotte Nichols, Alistair Strathern and Anneliese Midgley … Team GMB, including General Secretary Gary Smith, President Barbara Plant, National Political Officer Gavin Sibthorpe, and parliamentary rep Jenny Symmons.
TAKE THAT, UXBRIDGE: London Mayor Sadiq Khan was given the pollution, waste and air award at the Political Purpose Awards for the expansion of his much-contested ULEZ. 
BEST WISHES: To DHSC Head of Media Relations and former Sun journalist Jonathan Reilly, who will be taking time away from work after a blood cancer diagnosis. 
NEW GIGS: Labour staffer Rory Evans has finished his time as Emily Thornberry’s chief of staff, and is now senior communications adviser to both Polly Billington and Rachel Taylor.
FOR YOUR BOOKSHELF: Former No. 10 Policy Unit head Dan Corry has written a book of short stories from the perspective of a SpAd. “Tales of the Unelected” is out Sept. 12, available here.  
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Andrew McDonald.
WRITING PLAYBOOK THURSDAY MORNING: Dan Bloom.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Shadow Home Secretary James Cleverly and wife Susie … Shadow Welsh Secretary Byron Davies  … Crossbench peer John Dalrymple … Liverpool Echo political editor Liam Thorp … Institute for Government comms director Sam Macrory …  Former Labour and Change U.K. MP Mike Gapes … Former North West Cambridgeshire MP Shailesh Vara … former home office aide Jake Ryan … Free Speech Union’s Sam Armstrong.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Zoya Sheftalovich, Jack Blanchard and Alex Spence, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Catherine Bouris.
SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | London Playbook PM | Playbook Paris | EU Election Playbook | Berlin Playbook | Global Playbook | POLITICO Confidential | Sunday Crunch | EU Influence | London Influence | China Watcher | Berlin Bulletin | Living Cities | D.C. Playbook | D.C. Influence | All our POLITICO Pro policy morning newsletters